Perils of software estimation, part 1 - Overestimation
Parkinson’s Law states that “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.”
Goldratt’s Student syndrome refers to the phenomenon that many people will start to fully apply themselves to a task just in the wake of a deadline.
Overestimate a software project and Parkinson’s law applies. Your developers will be lazy because they’ve got plenty of time to get stuff done. The more you overestimate, the more diminished the productivity of your developers will become.
Regardless, overestimation will not likely increase your chances of delivering on time. Student syndrome suggests your developers won’t make any significant effort to deliver until their deadlines approach.Â
Don’t overestimate thinking it will greatly increase the chance of project success. It won’t.
Posted in Software Estimation
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